It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Thank you for supporting our journalism. Trump won the other 18 counties. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Watauga has gone for. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. What results did you discover? If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Their concerns are real. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. All other 21 counties voted Republican. Jeff. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. It gets a lot more interesting. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Trump won 18 of the 19. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. But that's no longer the case. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Free and open-source. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States These counties could play an . Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. What, if anything, did we miss? But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Their hopes are real. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Team up with others in your region, and help out by In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). 10. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. 2023 BBC. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. It's the wrong question. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Trump gave them hope. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Joe Biden (631) Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. 6. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Voter Demographics (9). Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Just how big is it? Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. 5. In their . According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. What science tells us about the afterlife. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Twitter Twitter The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. 3. TIP: This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Dont simply gloss over this. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. The highest percentage being 66.1%. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. 03:30. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. 2020 Election (1210) From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. . One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Hillary Clinton (578) Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). 2. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. 3. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Bellwether - Wikipedia First, what are bellwether counties? You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way.
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